Key findings
- Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service estimates roughly 40,000–60,000 tonnes of stolen resources move through the occupied ports each month;3 Reuters vessel-tracking recorded 18 cargo vessels departing Mariupol and Berdiansk over a five-month period, most bound for Turkish ports.4 A dredging tender (May–October 2026, Centre for the Study of Occupation monitoring) costing over RUB 441 million will further increase vessel capacity from Q3 2026.
- Russia established a direct customs post at Mariupol in November 2025, enabling cargo clearance without intermediary routing.2 A Temryuk re-registration route — documented from March 18, 2026 — routes cargo through Krasnodar Krai to obscure occupied-territory origin before onward shipment to Turkey.1
- The port is undergoing simultaneous military conversion: infrastructure for 3–4 Border Guard patrol boats was under construction in early 2026, with the main channel already blocked by the military vessel Donbass. Commercial and military logistics are operating from the same facility.
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Vessel counts, cargo flows, and the Temryuk re-registration route at Mariupol port.
Shadow Fleet and Port-Based Cargo Re-registration
| 40k–60k t Monthly throughput FIS estimate, occupied ports3 |
~8,000t Per vessel (max) Documented bulk cargo1 |
4 Vessels, Jan 2026 First direct clearance |
3–4 Patrol boats Border Guard, spring 2026 |
1+ Temryuk re-registration route Documented from Mar 18, 20261 |
|---|
Note on throughput. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service estimates roughly 40,000–60,000 tonnes of stolen resources move through the occupied ports each month.3 Reuters vessel-tracking recorded 18 cargo vessels departing Mariupol and Berdiansk over a five-month period, most bound for Turkish ports.4 Documented per-vessel loads are consistent with up to approximately 8,000 tonnes per vessel.1 The Coal Harbour dredging tender (May–October 2026) is designed to increase vessel capacity beyond this ceiling.
Note on sourcing: Centre for the Study of Occupation monitoring, held within the TOT Insights repository. See how we work.
1. Port Operational Timeline
| Date | Event | Vessels | Tonnage | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autumn 2024 | Port reoriented to bulk cargo only | Multiple/month (Centre monitoring) | ≤8,000t/vessel1 | Main channel blocked by military vessel 'Donbass'. Reoriented exclusively to bulk cargo: coal, ore, kaolin.2 |
| Nov 2025 | Official customs post established | - | - | RF Government order establishes Mariupol customs post for the first time - enabling direct clearance without Temryuk intermediary. Agreed by all Kremlin power centres. |
| Jan 2026 | First direct customs clearance | 3 vessels | Not specified | (1) 1 vessel: military equipment transported by rail/road; (2) 1 vessel: coking coal to Turkey; (3) 1 vessel: wheat to Egypt. First-ever direct customs clearance - significant reduction in cost and transit times. Port frozen mid-January due to ice. |
| Feb 21–22, 2026 | Ukrainian strike on fuel storage | 3–4 (military, planned) | Border Guard class | Infrastructure for 3–4 Border Guard patrol boats nearing completion near berth No. 1 and former Ship Repair Plant. Ukrainian strike hit newly constructed fuel/lubricants storage.5 Military conversion continues. |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Grain shipment via Temryuk | 1 vessel | Not specified | Cargo: grain. Route: Mariupol → Temryuk (Krasnodar Krai, RF) for re-registration → Turkish ports.1 Hub assessment: consistent with mechanisms to obscure occupied-territory origin and circumvent trade restrictions. |
| Mar 2026 (tender) | Coal Harbour dredging tender | Enables larger vessels | >8,000t/vessel post-dredge | ~400,000 m³ to be removed; increases channel depth for larger vessels. Cost: >RUB 441 million. Works: May–October 2026. Signals strategic reorientation toward large-scale export. |
2. Cargo Flows: Vessels, Tonnage and Routing
| Cargo | Destination | Vessels | Tonnage | Routing | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grain | Turkey (via Temryuk) | 1 | Not specified | Re-registered via Temryuk1 | March 18 — re-registered at Temryuk to obscure occupied-territory origin before onward export to Turkey. |
| Coking coal | Turkey | 2 (Jan 2026) | ≤8,000t/vessel | Direct | Direct export from January 2026 customs post. |
| Wheat | Egypt | 1 (Jan 2026) | Not specified | Direct | Direct export from January 2026 customs post. |
| Coal / ore / kaolin | Domestic Russia (relay) | Multiple/month (Centre monitoring) | ≤8,000t/vessel | Relay (domestic) | Autumn 2024–ongoing bulk cargo pipeline. |
| Military equipment | Frontline (rail/road) | 1 (Jan 2026) | Not specified | N/A | Military logistics alongside commercial cargo. |
3. Temryuk Re-Registration Mechanism
The March 18 grain shipment is one documented example of this routing. The three-step re-registration mechanism:
| Step 1 | Cargo loaded at Mariupol port under Russian occupation administration. Origin: occupied Ukrainian territory. One documented instance: March 18 grain shipment.1 |
|---|---|
| Step 2 Re-registration point | Shipped to Temryuk port (Krasnodar Krai, Russian Federation). Cargo re-registered as Russian-domestic goods - occupied-territory origin obscured. Temryuk is within Russia proper and outside direct sanctions scrutiny for port-of-origin tracking. |
| Step 3 | Onward shipment to Turkish ports. Turkey has not joined Western sanctions regime, functioning as an effective terminal destination. The November 2025 direct customs post operates in parallel for cargo that can be openly declared (coking coal, wheat) - the two tracks are complementary, not alternative mechanisms. |
4. Forward Indicators
- Coal Harbour dredging (May–October 2026): completion will increase vessel capacity beyond 8,000t ceiling, watch for cargo-type and volume changes from Q3 2026
- April 10 dredging tender results: contractor identity will indicate whether MoD-linked or commercial entities are awarded the contract
- Temryuk routing frequency: a re-registration via Temryuk was documented on March 18 — tracking subsequent shipments will establish whether this is systematic or ad hoc
- Border Guard patrol boat deployment (spring 2026): 3–4 vessels planned; formal transformation of port into military facility affects civilian shipping access and international legal status
Notes
- Vessels load grain or coal at occupied Mariupol, then clear documents at the Russian port of Temryuk without cargo operations, with AIS switched off during the Mariupol leg, before delivering to Turkey or Egypt. SeaKrime / Ukrainian Shipping Magazine, https://en.usm.media/stolen-ukrainian-wheat-delivered-from-occupied-mariupol-to-turkey/ and https://en.usm.media/bulk-carrier-with-stolen-grain-from-occupied-mariupol-is-being-unloaded-in-egypt/; Ukraine Defense Intelligence War and Sanctions portal, https://war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/
- Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported Russia's 2025 integration of the Mariupol port into its logistics system and its opening to foreign vessels to circumvent sanctions; a government decree of 25 August 2025 added Mariupol and Berdiansk to the list of ports open to foreign vessels. RBC-Ukraine, https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-folds-occupied-mariupol-port-into-1768738134.html
- Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service estimates roughly 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of stolen resources move through the occupied ports each month. RBC-Ukraine (as note 2).
- Reuters vessel-tracking recorded 18 cargo vessels departing Mariupol and Berdiansk between July and November, most bound for Turkish ports; Russian customs data showed at least 508,500 tonnes of coal, coke and anthracite worth $13.2 million exported from occupied regions between March 2022 and March 2025. Reuters, via Kyiv Post, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72779
- Ukrainian forces struck the Mariupol Commercial Sea Port, identified as a Russian military-logistics hub also used for illegal export of grain, coal and metal. Kyiv Post, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/77876; United24 Media, https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-strikes-occupied-mariupol-port-used-for-russian-military-logistics-and-illegal-grain-exports-19686
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